Phocuswright Research Roundup 3Q26

A quarter of fuel shocks, cautious travelers and concentrated distribution

By Phocuswright Marketing

Research Roundup 3Q26

Third-quarter research tracked an industry absorbing a fuel shock and a trust problem at the same time. Rising jet fuel costs pushed Australia-New Zealand into contraction, slowed Southeast Asia to 2% growth and turned India's rebound into a story about fares more than volume.

Consumer studies across Europe, Latin America and Asia found travelers using AI widely but trusting it little, with friends, family and agents still closing the sale. Distribution showed hidden concentration: U.S. OTAs lean on hotels, China's OTAs face regulators and experiences remain two-thirds offline.

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U.S. Travel Market Report 2026 Series

2 reports

OTAs are running on hotels

U.S. OTA gross bookings rose 4% to $100.3 billion in 2025, and OTAs now hold one-fifth of U.S. travel spending. The segment mix is narrower than the headline suggests. Only 13% of airlines' online passenger revenue passes through an OTA, while hotels make up 63% of OTA gross bookings. If hotel demand keeps cooling, smaller segments like packages, cruise and activities have to fill the gap.

OTA vs. supplier-direct share of online bookings, total and by segment

U.S. Online Travel Agency Market Essentials 2026

Free Research Insights article: 13% is the number that explains why OTAs need hotels to keep working

U.S. Cruise Market Essentials 2026

The U.S. cruise market grew 17% to $32.6 billion in 2025 as passenger volumes hit new highs. Younger cruisers, shorter itineraries and growing luxury and river options widened the segment's appeal. Travel advisors still dominate bookings, though direct online sales keep rising. Fuel costs, geopolitics and overtourism pose risks, but heavy capacity investment and a broader customer base leave cruise in a strong position for 2026.

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Global Sector Sizing

2 reports

Tours and activities outgrow travel while most bookings stay offlineFree report

Arival and Phocuswright size the global experiences market at $253 billion in 2024. It grew 17% that year against 6% for travel overall and is projected to reach $342 billion by 2029. Travelers book 3.5 to 4.7 experiences per trip, yet only 33% of experiences were booked online in 2025 versus 64% of all travel. A fragmented base of small operators and a strong walk-up habit keep the sector offline.

Average number of tours, activities and attractions booked per trip

Travel Experiences 2026: Market Sizing, Operator and Consumer Behavior Highlights

Free Research Insights article: Tours and activities are outgrowing travel overall. Distribution hasn't caught up.

Short-term rentals trade boom growth for scrutiny and staying power

Global STR gross bookings reached $219.9 billion in 2025 and are projected to hit $270.6 billion by 2029. Tighter regulation is reshaping supply. AI and platform shifts are changing discovery. Travelers compare STRs with hotels more often. U.S. usage jumped from 24% to 30%, the largest gain on record, while Europe already runs higher. Asia Pacific leads growth at an 8.9% CAGR.

Global Short-Term Rentals 2026

Free Research Insights article: Short-term rentals enter a new phase of scrutiny and structural growth

Asia Pacific Travel Market Report 2026 Series

4 reports

Fuel costs and cost of living push ANZ into contraction

ANZ travel grew just 3.6% to $39.2 billion in 2025 and is set to contract nearly 5% in 2026. Hotels take the hardest hit, falling 9% as international visitors stay away and fuel costs keep drive tourists home. Airlines dip 1% after missing growth targets, and car rental is the only segment holding steady. Recovery to $43.3 billion is expected by 2029.

Australia-New Zealand total gross bookings

Australia-New Zealand Travel Market Brief 2026

Free Research Insights article: Why the ANZ travel market is contracting in 2026 (and what recovers by 2029)

China's OTAs face slowing growth, regulators and AI at once

China's OTAs generated $60.9 billion in 2025 on a path toward $82.2 billion by 2029, but growth is slowing and the field looks over-supplied. In July regulators fined Trip.com RMB5.18 billion in the sector's first anti-monopoly case. Agentic AI is starting to change how travelers search and book. Tongcheng is buying across segments, from hotels to an airline, to shore up its position.

China Travel Market Essentials 2026

Free Research Insights article: China's OTAs face a reckoning as growth slows and regulators circle

India stalls, then rebounds on higher fares

India's travel market grew just 1% to $41.7 billion in 2025 after 10% the year before, as disruptions at IndiGo and Air India dragged on air. Phocuswright projects 13% growth in 2026, partly on higher fares as a jet fuel shock squeezes carriers. OTAs and suppliers are expanding across the whole trip, and AI is moving from inspiration into the booking itself.

India Travel Market Essentials 2026

Free Research Insights article: India's travel market stalls in 2025, then bets on a fare-driven rebound

Indonesia overtakes Thailand as a fuel shock slows Southeast Asia

Indonesia is set to pass Thailand as Southeast Asia's largest travel market in 2026. Regional growth slows to 2% as the U.S.-Iran War drives up jet fuel prices, lifting fares and cutting low-cost routes. Air bookings rise mostly on price and hotel bookings stay flat at $28.4 billion. Online keeps climbing toward $51.6 billion by 2029, with OTAs taking 42% of all bookings.

Southeast Asia total gross bookings by country

Southeast Asia Travel Market Essentials 2026

Free Research Insights article: Indonesia set to overtake Thailand as Southeast Asia's largest travel market

Consumer Trends

5 reports

European travelers use AI but trust people

Across the U.K., France and Germany, 42% to 55% of travelers mostly or completely trust friends and family for trip planning, and 33% to 42% trust retail agents. AI use is climbing, but trust in AI results sits around 17% to 20%. Travelers use it to build shortlists, then verify elsewhere. Data sharing rises with concrete benefits like faster check-in and drops with opaque personalization.

Most trusted resources for trip planning

Europe's Trust Economy: Confidence as Travel's Newest Competitive Advantage

Free Research Insights article: The trust economy: How European travelers decide who to believe

Digital identity in Europe needs three different pitches

Familiarity with the EU Digital Identity Wallet rose in all three markets surveyed. France leads at 25% and Germany climbed fastest to 21%. Adoption intent doesn't track familiarity, and Germans trust their national ID at more than double the French rate. The report's conclusion: France needs a security message, Germany an extension of a trusted habit and the U.K. concrete travel benefits.

Travelers' top identified benefits of the EU Digital Identity Wallet

In Europe, Digital Identity Wins on Trust, Not Convenience

Free Research Insights article: Why one European digital identity playbook won't work for three markets

Latin American travelers want family time and the classics

A Phocuswright and Arival survey of 1,200 travelers in Argentina, Brazil and Mexico ranks relaxation and family time ahead of authenticity and off-the-beaten-path travel. Nearly half took their last trip with children, versus about one in three in the U.S. and Europe. Experiences shape destination choice, especially in Brazil and Mexico. Seven in 10 use AI to plan, but friends, family, reviews and agents still decide what gets booked.

Latin American Experiences Traveler chart

The Latin American Experiences Traveler

Free Research Insights article: Family first: What's really driving Latin America's travel boom

Booking anxiety now has a price tag

More than half of Asia Pacific travelers and at least 45% in Europe and the U.S. faced a travel or event disruption in the past year. They respond by buying insurance, researching longer, choosing refundable options and booking closer to departure, with anxiety peaking at checkout. A guaranteed full refund is the top confidence booster in every market. Asia Pacific travelers favor a lower price with low-cost refund protection, while U.S. and European travelers would rather pay more for free cancellation. Refund protection also pays off in loyalty, raising the likelihood of rebooking on the same platform to 57% in the U.S., 49% in the U.K. and 39% in China.

Global Booking Anxiety: The U.S., Europe and Asia Pacific

Mountain & Ski Travel 2026

Mountain and ski demand holds up even as unreliable snow tests traveler confidence, and winter sports travelers keep booking at a pace no simple "revenge travel" story explains. Destination choice, spend and loyalty split sharply by generation, family status and skill level, and a growing share of trips carry luxury pricing. Decisions have become more psychological than seasonal as travelers weigh timing, destination and booking commitments against conditions they can't control. The report draws on a survey of U.S. travelers who took a mountain or snow trip since 2022.

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Online Travel Tracker

3 reports

Online Travel Tracker: The Indie Stack

Rising online penetration, social discovery and AI tools give Asia's independent travelers more control over how they plan and book. The region's indie travel economy still rests on small businesses and community operators, which face both opportunity and pressure as OTAs expand. This edition examines how indie travelers are reshaping demand and how smaller suppliers are responding with new tools and more direct routes to customers.

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Online Travel Tracker: Travel. Tech. Thailand.

Thailand's offline booking share is set to fall from 35% in 2025 to 25% by 2028, while the Tourism Authority of Thailand shifts from volume to value, favoring wellness and MICE. Global and regional OTAs still lead, leaving room for homegrown platforms. Thai travelers rank among the world's most eager AI adopters, drawing investment from the government, Google and Microsoft.

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Online Travel Tracker: Asia by Road & Rail

Asia Pacific road and rail travel reached $106 billion in 2025, with rail driving growth and car rental recovering fastest. Rail leads every segment in online penetration as national operators steer travelers to their own apps, while car rental stays offline and fragmented. OTAs are racing to build rail integrations and multimodal bundles. New cross-border rail links and rising fuel costs will redraw the balance between air, rail and road.

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Data Visualization

2 reports

Travel Metric of the Month 2026

Each month Phocuswright takes one subject from its research and turns it into an interactive deep dive. This quarter covered three:

July: Global Short-Term Rental Trends
August: U.S. Market Sizing Trends
September: China Travel Market Trends

Explore the metrics

Global Traveler Trends 2026

Global Traveler Trends turns findings from Phocuswright's consumer research into new data visualizations. Throughout the year, Phocuswright fields online consumer surveys of adults who travel for leisure, spotlighting key segments and emerging trends across its consumer markets. Topics span technology adoption, booking behavior and sentiment toward leisure travel.

This quarter's installment: Payments and Loyalty Among European Travelers.

Explore the visualizations

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More than numbers: This is decision-grade intelligence

Phocal Point: Global Market Sizing

When the market shifts, the most prepared teams aren’t just watching — they’re already adjusting.

That’s why we’ve updated Phocal Point and our Short-Term Rental dashboard with new market sizing, sharper forecasts through 2028, and tools built for professionals who need to move with clarity — not guesswork.

Why It Matters

Every percentage point matters
Whether you're modeling revenue, sizing a market, or evaluating a new opportunity, the difference between a good guess and a precise projection adds up — fast.

Regional nuance matters
What’s happening in Western Europe isn’t what’s happening in the U.S. — and it’s definitely not what’s happening in Asia Pacific. Our updated forecasts reflect this complexity, so you don’t have to flatten it.

Distribution strategy matters
Where bookings happen — and how that’s changing — is just as important as how much they’re worth. Our STR dashboard gives you interactive access to gross bookings data by channel, year, and region. Run your own comparisons. Export your own cuts. Back your strategy with specifics.

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