COVID-19 Hotel Forecast: Dallas

The occupancy growth trend for Dallas is positive, and the city's normally low-performing July may be a blessing in disguise. The recent McKinsey & Company two-week consumer sentiment results show bad news for hotels/resorts, but Dallas hoteliers may be able to ride this out in a bit better shape than others.

Dallas may also be at the bottom with a projected YoY occupancy rate decline of 82% and 33% YoY drop in average daily rate (ADR) compared to the prior year.

While many are looking backwards to compare the current market environment with the post-9/11 or 2008 Great Recession periods, Phocuswright prefers to look forward – trying to address the tough questions weighing on our collective minds.

Over the coming months, by teaming up with the data science team at LodgIQ, Phocuswright will evaluate a broad swath of hotel-related and other data across a variety of key metropolitan areas. Our key objectives are to model the:

• Level of disruption
• Duration of disruption
• Shape of the recovery curve

The goal is to understand the similarities and differences in hotel market dynamics between destinations. This is especially relevant, as some markets may have yet to peak in terms of the level of infections, while others are seeing active coronavirus case counts decline.

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