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The U.S. travel industry is on a wild ride as the economy stalls and threats of a dreaded double-dip recession loom. After a dreadful 2009, demand for travel improved in 2010 and further increased into early 2011. Corporate travel rebounded nicely and leisure travelers, tired of "staycations," booked their summer holidays. Yet with economic uncertainty lingering, the outlook for 2012 remains guarded.
PhoCusWright's U.S. Online Travel Overview Eleventh Edition is a comprehensive analysis of the U.S. travel industry, providing market sizing and growth forecasts through 2013. The report focuses on the U.S. online leisure/unmanaged business travel marketplace, highlighting marketing and distribution trends for all travel segments including air, hotel, car rental, vacation packaging, rail and cruise. It tracks distribution shifts among supplier websites and online travel agencies, as well as major offline channels. The report analyzes trends in market share, technological innovation and consumer behavior to provide a detailed overview of travel distribution in the U.S.
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Carroll Rheem, PhoCusWright's director, research:
- Size of the U.S. total and online travel markets
- Market forecasts through 2013
- Distribution patterns by segment and channel
- In-depth analysis of air, hotel, car rental, vacation packaging, rail and cruise segments
- Consumer and technology trends influencing travel marketing and distribution
- Impact of macroeconomic changes
Hotel & Lodging
Online Travel Agencies
Table of Contents
Size and Structure of the U.S. Online Travel Market
Online Travel Agencies: The Plot Thickens
Airlines: The Gloves Come Off
Hotel & Lodging: Online Surges Amid Uncertainty
Car Rental: Slow Going
Packaged Travel: A Challenging Horizon
Rail: Online Bookings Maintain Momentum
Cruise: Agents Slip as Online Gains
LIST OF TABLES
Percent of Leisure Travelers by Age Group
Travel Frequency Intentions by Number of Leisure Trips in Prior Year
Total U.S. Travel Market, 2006-2013 (US$B)
Total U.S. Travel Market, Year-Over-Year Change, 2007-2013
Total U.S. Travel Market by Segment, 2010
Leisure Travel Booking Channels, 2008 - 2010
Total U.S. Travel Market by Channel, 2010 and 2013
U.S. Travel Market, Year-Over-Year Channel Change, 2009-2013
U.S. Online Leisure/Unmanaged Business Travel Market, 2009-2013 (US$B)
Online vs. Total Travel Market, Year-Over-Year Growth Rates, 2009-2013
U.S. Online Leisure/Unmanaged Business and Total Travel Gross Bookings, 2009-2013 (US$B)
Online Travel Penetration of Total Travel Market, Global Markets, 2009-2013
U.S. Online Leisure/Unmanaged Business Travel Market by Segment, 2009-2013 (US$M)
Total U.S. Online Leisure/Unmanaged Business Travel Market by Segment, 2010 and 2013
Online Leisure/Unmanaged Business Growth Rates by Segment, 2010 and 2011
U.S. Online Leisure/Unmanaged Business Travel as Percentage of Total Market: Online Penetration by Segment, 2009-2013
U.S. Online and Total Leisure/Unmanaged Business Travel Gross Bookings, Growth Rates and Total Online Penetration, 2009-2013 (US$M)
Channel Market Share of Online Gross Bookings, 2009-2013
Channel Market Share of Online Gross Bookings, 2009 and 2013
Channel Market Share of Online Revenue by Segment, 2009-2013
U.S. Online Leisure/Unmanaged Business Travel Market by Channel, 2009-2013 (US$M)
OTA Gross Bookings by Segment, 2009-2013 (US$M)
Segment Share of U.S. Domestic OTA Gross Bookings, 2009-2013 (US$M)
Online Packaging Gross Bookings and Share of Total OTA Market, 2009-2013 (US$M)
U.S. Supplier and OTA Share of Online Leisure/Unmanaged Business Travel Gross Bookings, 2009-2013 (US$M)
U.S. Supplier and OTA Share of Total Market, 2009-2013 (US$M)
Domestic Gross Bookings Year-Over-Year Growth for Three Public OTAs, 2010-2Q11
U.S. Domestic Market Share Among the Top Four OTAs, 2010 and 1H11
Top OTA Gross Bookings and Annual Growth, U.S. and International, 2010 / Top OTA Gross Bookings and Annual Growth, U.S. and International, 1H2011
U.S. Internet Leisure/Unmanaged Business Gross Bookings, 2009-2013 (US$M)
Annual Change in Revenue Passenger Enplanements and Passenger Revenue for U.S. Airlines, 2008-2010 and 1H11
Annual Change in Revenue Passenger Enplanements and Passenger Revenue for Low-Cost and Network Carriers, 1H11
Reported Airline Ancillary Revenue and Share of Total Scheduled Passenger Revenue, 2006-2010 (US$M)
American Airlines Capturing Passenger Details Earlier in the Shopping Funnel and Serving Up Trip Options Before Review and Payment
U.S. Hotel vs. Economic Growth Metrics, 2011 (Forecast) vs. 2010
U.S. Hotel & Lodging Internet Leisure/Unmanaged Business Gross Bookings, 2009-2013 (US$M)
U.S. Hotel & Lodging Online Gross Bookings Share by Channel, 2010-2013
Estimated Distribution of U.S. Hotel Room Revenue (%), 2010 and 2013
OTA Look of Wyndam's Baymont Inn & Suites
Hyatt Offers Metasearch-Like Links to Properties
Hilton Automates Group Bookings
U.S. Car Rental Internet Leisure/Unmanaged Business Gross Bookings, 2009-2013 (US$M)
U.S. Car Rental Online Gross Bookings Share by Channel, 2010 and 2013
U.S. Packaged Travel Internet Leisure/Unmanaged Business Gross Bookings, 2009-2013 (US$M)
Traveler Purchase Incidence of Dynamic and Prepackaged Vacations, 2008-2010
Shifting Share: The Total Packaged Travel Market by Channel, 2009 and 2013
Online Share of Travel Agent Package Sales, 2009 and 2013
U.S. Rail Internet Leisure/Unmanaged Business Gross Bookings (US$M), 2009-2013
Channel Share of Amtrak Passenger Ticket Revenue (%), 2011 (Projected)
Year-Over-Year Change in Rail Passenger Ticket Revenue by Channel (%), 2009-2011
U.S. Cruise Line Internet Leisure/Unmanaged Business Gross Bookings, 2009-2013 (US$M)
Average Monthly Unique Visitors to Major Cruise Line Websites and Annual Change for September 2009-August 2010 and September 2010-August 2011
Cruise Guest Reviews Online Become Mainstream
Cruise Booking Channel Share, 2008 and 2011
MARKET SIZE AND FORECASTS
PhoCusWright has been tracking the financial results of the online travel industry since 1998. This report's estimates and forecasts cover U.S.-based travel businesses, including travel suppliers (airlines, hotels, car rental companies, packagers, railways and cruise lines) and online travel agencies. The total market size includes sales of non-U.S. travel suppliers transacted via U.S.-based OTAs. All figures are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise stated.
Both leisure and unmanaged business travel services are included in the online travel market size and forecast figures. Unless otherwise indicated, all online gross bookings and share figures refer to leisure/unmanaged travel. Unmanaged business travel refers to all air, car and hotel expenses associated with business travel in firms that do not have travel policies dictating the channel, type of travel, supplier or fare/rate uses. Corporate online booking systems such as Sabre Holdings/GetThere and Amadeus/eTravel are excluded from this analysis.
PhoCusWright builds its estimates and forecasts from discussions with more than 80 travel executives regarding their companies' Internet sales, marketing and technology investments, challenges, strategies and expectations. Their responses have been vetted and aggregated to determine market size for supplier websites and OTAs. PhoCusWright also reviewed data from Securities and Exchange Commission documents, company reports, and select third-party data sources.
Figures for 2009-2010 are based on actual company results. Projections for 2011-2013 are based on company interviews, consumer research and market developments. PhoCusWright also considers historical growth and economic trends when developing its forecasts. Estimates and projections are for gross bookings - the retail value of travel sold over the Internet - after cancellations. Figures for airlines are based on flown (passenger) revenue. Hotel figures are based on room revenue. Figures for car rental are based on domestic U.S. revenues, excluding insurance replacement revenue. Figures for cruise lines and tour operators are based on U.S. outbound passenger revenue. Figures for rail are based on passenger ticket revenue.
Where possible, travel that is researched online but booked offline using a toll-free telephone number provided on the website is excluded from online gross bookings figures. Total travel figures (online and offline) are used to determine Internet penetration for each market segment. Total travel figures are either derived from third-party sources or are PhoCusWright estimates.
Note that figures listed in tables do not always add precisely to column totals due to rounding.
CONSUMER TRAVEL AND BEHAVIORAL INFORMATION
PhoCusWright fielded an online consumer survey January 19-25, 2011, through Global Market Insite, Inc., targeting the general U.S. population that has Internet access and travels for leisure. To qualify for participation in the study, respondents had to indicate that they had taken at least one leisure trip at least 75 miles from home in the past 12 months that included paid lodging and/or air travel. An additional screener required consumers to have played active roles in planning their leisure trips. Respondents who qualified are referred to as "U.S. travelers." The term "lodging" is used in this report to refer to the broad range of paid accommodations - hotels and other nightly-priced lodging products - as well as timeshares and vacation rentals.
PhoCusWright received 2,536 qualified responses, and the weighted respondent pool can be projected with confidence to the U.S. adult population with Internet access. A total of 6,064 respondents were surveyed to obtain baseline metrics about travelers and nontravelers within the general online population. The error interval for analysis of the U.S. traveler population is +/-1.95% at a 95% confidence level. Significant differences noted in this report were identified at a 95% confidence level.