PhoCusWright - Publications List

INDIAN ONLINE TRAVEL INTERMEDIARY OVERVIEW
DATA POINT, March 2010 show abstract
Despite the struggling global economy, the online travel intermediary marketplace in India remains vibrant and is growing steadily. Companies that are sensitive to India’s enormous diversity – and to the preferences of their target markets – will find ample opportunities for continued growth and success.

TRAVEL INNOVATION AND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS: 2010 AND BEYOND
ANALYSIS, March 2010 show abstract

PhoCusWright has isolated 10 key travel innovation and technology trends from the plethora of global initiatives in the past year. Together, these trends form a mosaic of interconnected components that set the direction for the future of travel distribution.

INDUSTRY UPDATE SUMMARY MARCH 2010
TRAVELSTATS, March 2010 show abstract
We finally closed the books on what turned out to be the worst year on record in travel. Domestic sales fell. While we are beginning to see signs of recovery as the economy rebounds, we expect a relatively modest uptick in travel. We project growth with air, car rental and cruise sales up. However, we expect a down year in lodging. Online travel remains a bright spot with OTA bookings expected to be up.

PHOCUSWRIGHT'S TRAVEL AND FINANCE OUTLOOK 2010
PRESENTATION, March 2010 show abstract
This Online Event takes an in-depth look at the financial performance of the travel industry. PhoCusWright analyst Jake Fuller presents an updated outlook for 2010 and reviews key trends impacting the bottom line of travel companies and industry segments.

To access the recorded Webinar, please go to slide 2 of the PowerPoint presentation to access the links.

AIR CONTINUES TO BE A KEY SOURCE OF OTA GROWTH
FINANCIAL FLASH, February 2010 show abstract
The OTAs showed dramatic acceleration in 4Q bookings growth, driven in no small part by a sharp uptick in airline bookings. We will have a lot more on that topic in our 3/3/10 webinar Travel and Finance Outlook, but our January data provides evidence that the trend has continued into 1Q10 as well.

ASIA PACIFIC MOBILE TRENDS
ANALYSIS, February 2010 show abstract
The Asia Pacific region has the largest mobile subscriber base in the world, and the opportunity for travel companies in this space remains largely untapped. This article delves into the key mobile trends in APAC and examines how they will affect the travel industry.

GROUP BOOKING SOLUTIONS
ANALYSIS, February 2010 show abstract
Most airlines and global distribution systems have neglected to provide automation for group bookings, despite the sizable revenue of this segment – but several companies have innovative products and capabilities in the works.

NINE THINGS (NOT TEN) THAT WILL DRIVE TRAVEL DISTRIBUTION IN 2010
ANALYSIS, February 2010 show abstract
PhoCusWright analysts put their heads together to pinpoint nine key trends that will shape the travel industry in 2010. Some are the latest iterations of familiar themes, while others are just bubbling to the surface.

4Q09 PREVIEW: SEEING CONTINUED STRENGTH IN ONLINE TRAVEL
FINANCIAL QUARTERLY OUTLOOK, February 2010 show abstract
While online travel agency volume growth in 4Q09 is expected to be down from the previous quarter, year-over-year gross bookings should be up, and OTAs will see greater inventory access and rising hotel average daily rates in 2010.

PHOCUSWRIGHT'S GLOBAL ONLINE TRAVEL OVERVIEW
PRESENTATION, February 2010 show abstract
Expert analysts present findings, data and analysis from PhoCusWright’s annual reports: U.S. Online Travel Overview Ninth Edition, European Online Travel Overview Fifth Edition and Asia Pacific Online Travel Overview Third Edition.

To access the recorded Webinar, please go to slide 2 of the PowerPoint presentation to access the links.

PHOCUSWRIGHT'S GLOBAL ONLINE TRAVEL OVERVIEW: COMPARING THREE MAJOR REGIONS: U.S., EUROPE AND ASIA PACIFIC
DATA POINT, February 2010 show abstract

Three main regions dominate online travel booking today: the U.S., Europe and Asia Pacific. This article compares total and online leisure/unmanaged business travel gross bookings for these three markets – actual figures for 2008 and projections for 2009-2011 – and highlights the dynamics and opportunities of individual markets within these regions.

MORE GOOD NEWS ON THE OCCUPANCY TAX FRONT
FINANCIAL FLASH, February 2010 show abstract
Following several losses in occupancy tax cases last year, we have seen three wins since December. The tax risk has weighed on leading hotel merchant Expedia, but the favorable developments suggest there may be much less risk than initially feared. In the latest and most meaningful development, a ruling against the online travel agencies (OTAs) in Anaheim, Calif. was overturned on appeal.

ASIA PACIFIC CORPORATE TRAVEL OVERVIEW
SPOTLIGHT, January 2010 show abstract
Corporate travel in the Asia Pacific region is largely unmanaged and driven by local, traditional travel agencies. Except for Japan and Australia/New Zealand, most of the region’s corporate travel is booked offline and paid for via invoice, as online corporate booking and payment solutions have yet to gain traction.

INDUSTRY UPDATE SUMMARY JANUARY 2010
TRAVELSTATS, January 2010 show abstract
We have finally closed the books on what turned out to be the worst year on record for travel. Domestic sales fell. While we are beginning to see signs of recovery as the economy rebounds, we expect a relatively modest uptick in travel. We project growth in 2010, with air, car rental and cruise sales up. However, we expect a down year in lodging. Capacity cuts and firming demand should yield pricing increases for airlines and car rental companies, but continued supply growth should yield lower occupancy and further rate declines in lodging. Online travel remains a bright spot, with OTA bookings expected to be up.

TAKING ANOTHER CRACK AT TRAVELPORT VALUATION
FINANCIAL FLASH, January 2010 show abstract
We have taken a couple of cracks at understanding how Travelport’s planned IPO values the company. We are again fine-tuning our thoughts based on a bit more detailed information around the company’s capital structure. The planned IPO would value the equity of Travelport at $3.3-4.0 billion and after factoring in debt and a stake in Orbitz, the total implied value of the enterprise would be $5.9-6.6 billion. That is a bit higher than our last cut, in which we got to a total value of $5.4-6.1 billion. The change reflects a higher net debt figure and adjustment for Travelport’s Orbitz stake.

MORE ON TRAVELPORT...
FINANCIAL FLASH, January 2010 show abstract
With a bit more information now on the details of the planned Travelport IPO, we have fine-tuned our thoughts on valuation. Based on the sale of a 50-60% equity stake, the implied valuation of Travelport would be $5.4-6.1 billion, which compares to the $5.7 billion that it cost to put the business together.

OUR THOUGHTS ON THE TRAVELPORT IPO
FINANCIAL FLASH, January 2010 show abstract
After months of speculation, it is official…Travelport has filed for an IPO. From what we can see, the deal would put a total value on the business within 5% of its initial purchase price, despite a substantial erosion in profitability in the downturn and the potential for a hit in the 2011 airline contract renewals. The ability to achieve that valuation will likely be critical as Sabre explores a potential IPO.

SEEING UPWARD MOVEMENT IN FORWARD HOTEL RATE CURVE
FINANCIAL FLASH, January 2010 show abstract
While the hotel pricing environment remains very difficult and likely will be throughout 2010, we are seeing signs that trends are improving and exceeding low expectations.

MOBILE UPDATE: ADOPTION, INNOVATION...LOCATION!
ANALYSIS, January 2010 show abstract
The mobile landscape is continuing to shift. While mobile travel bookings are still in their infancy, demand for travel applications soared in 2009, and the industry responded. Here are the top developments of 2009 and a look at what to expect in the coming year.

NUMBER OF WEB SITES USED FOR HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANNING
CHART, January 2010 show abstract
Number of Web sites used for holiday travel planning

THE BIG PICTURE: A LAST LOOK BACK...AND THEN AHEAD
FINANCIAL SPOTLIGHT, January 2010 show abstract
Although 2009 was one of the travel industry’s worst years on record, 2010 should bring modest gains in air, car rental and cruise. Lodging will continue to suffer, but online travel agencies are expected to see a sharp rise in bookings.

HOW CLOUD COMPUTING COULD REVOLUTIONIZE THE TRAVEL INDUSTRY
SPOTLIGHT, January 2010 show abstract
Cloud computing has several years to go before reaching maturity, but the current opportunities it presents ― especially for new ventures ― overshadow the risks. This article delves into the business and technical aspects of cloud computing and highlights how several companies are using it to their advantage.

TRAVEL TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION FOCUS: CUSTOMIZATION, MOBILE, SEMANTIC TECHNOLOGY AND BUSINESS MODELS
ANALYSIS, December 2009 show abstract
Travel distribution of the future will be dominated by innovation, and opportunities in the space are myriad. Hot spots like customization and semantic and mobile technology are especially attractive for new entrants.

ONLINE TRAVEL AGENCIES 3Q09: EXPEDIA, PRICELINE ROCKET AHEAD
DATA POINT, December 2009 show abstract
Hotel occupancy and airline traffic showed minor improvement in 3Q09, only slightly disrupting the steady decline in industry performance over 2008. Despite the still-dismal state of the industry, Expedia and Priceline both enjoyed a countercyclical surge, coming out of the quarter with major gains in gross bookings and transactions.

GETTING THERE – ONLINE TRAVEL IN ASIA PACIFIC
ANALYSIS, December 2009 show abstract
For some countries in Asia Pacific – India, China, and Australia – development of an online travel market has been revolutionary, happening practically overnight. For others, such as Thailand and Indonesia, the pace has been much slower and hampered by obstacles. What accounts for this difference, and what does it mean for the future of these markets?

THE PHOCUSWRIGHT CONSUMER TECHNOLOGY SURVEY THIRD EDITION, PART FIVE OF FIVE
DATA POINT, December 2009 show abstract
While most travelers aren’t yet using their mobile devices to make travel reservations, early adopters tend to be young, arguably hip, and, most importantly, frequent travelers. Among online travelers, maps and flight status alerts are the most desired mobile activities, stressing the importance of time-and location-sensitive information.

GDS IPOS IN THE NEWS AGAIN
FINANCIAL FLASH, December 2009 show abstract
There has been press for months about global distribution system (GDS) plans for early-2010 initial public offerings. We have argued that IPOs could be a catalyst for consolidation among the four main OTAs (Expedia, Orbitz, Priceline and Travelocity).

INDUSTRY UPDATE SUMMARY DECEMBER 2009
TRAVELSTATS, December 2009 show abstract
There are signs of a very moderate recovery. Online travel has gained share throughout the downturn, though some segments have fared better than others. While flight demand remains weak, airlines are benefiting from reduced capacity. Hotels continue to suffer from the imbalance between supply and demand.

FRENCH ONLINE TRAVEL AGENCIES, MARKET SHARES (%), 2007-2008
CHART, December 2009 show abstract
French online travel agencies and their Market Shares (%), 2007-2008.

TRAVEL INDUSTRY STANDARDS: FISH OR CUT BAIT
SPOTLIGHT, December 2009 show abstract
Creating a global electronic marketplace for travel requires standards that enable learning, shopping, and booking across a multitude of points-of-sale. While some standards have been established, most segments are still too fragmented and there is still much to be done. What are the next steps, and who will make them happen?