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Recession Scenarios in Europe and their Impact on Online Travel Agencies
Analysts: Jake Fuller
Money Edition Spotlight | Published: January 2012

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Publication Summary

Given the tone of the headlines in Europe, it is hard not to consider recession scenarios and what the impact might be for the online travel agencies (OTAs). Europe has been a large part of the growth story for the public OTAs over the last couple of years, playing a major role in Priceline's emergence as the travel industry's market capitalization leader. The European opportunity also has evolved as a critical category for Expedia as it strives to catch up. We cannot say whether recession in Europe is coming or not, but it is clear that neither Phocuswright's forecast nor Wall Street consensus expectations are incorporating a downturn. With this Spotlight we take a closer look at expectations for the European online hotel category to gauge the downside risk to expectations under a recession scenario and the impact on the two most visible OTAs.